Posts Tagged 'crosswalk timers'

Mid-election afterthoughts.

Rushing to get my Trump reflections on the record before tonight’s U.S. election result made them redundant, I declined to pursue a number of digressions as they occurred to me. But I have nothing else going on today, so I guess I’ll work them up into their own post.

***

Not long ago I was reminiscing to a friend about the time Howard Stern ran for governor of New York. Stern promised to unsnarl New York City’s traffic jams by moving all road construction work to the middle of the night. That was it. Once he’d accomplished that, he said, he would resign.

My friend and I had been talking about how politics doesn’t really offer a mechanism for solving ubiquitous but small irritants. She mentioned crosswalk signals that count down the seconds until the light turns amber – you scurry to get across, the countdown reaches zero – and the light doesn’t turn amber! What is the purpose of those misleading timers? Or of those crosswalk signals that are activated by a button, but if the light is already green when you push it, you’re confronted with a steady red hand. You wait, thinking maybe the light is about to change…and wait…and wait…while there was plenty of time for you to have crossed safely, if the signal had been more intelligently designed. But how do you democratically register your vexation over poor crosswalk signals?

What would be my platform, my friend asked, if I ran a single-issue Stern-style campaign? I said it would probably have something to do with noise pollution. Banning leaf blowers, for instance, which aggravate whole city blocks while barely improving on the efficiency of rakes and brooms. Or getting rid of truck backup beepers, which avert a knowable number of deaths per year at the cost of an unknowable amount of life-shortening stress from the cumulative effect of urban noisiness.

***

Having confessed in the previous post to my deplorable lack of outrage over the offenses of Donald Trump, maybe I ought to spell out, for the benefit of bemused readers, what issues I am passionate about.

It’s a pretty short list. It looks something like this:

1) Free speech (pro).
2) Suburban sprawl, auto dependency (anti), public transit (pro).
3) Democracy (pro).

I’m not saying those are the most important issues. Clearly nuclear proliferation, environmental degradation, third world overpopulation – threats that, badly managed, could actually end all life on earth – are far more important. But I have no ready answer for those existential threats, let alone for more parochial questions like how integrated the United Kingdom should be with the European Union, or how the United States should tweak its health insurance system, or whether the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal is on balance good for Canada.

Whereas I am strongly, and probably unalterably, in favour of a more expansive definition of free speech. Not because speech is in itself wonderful – the freer it is, the more of it will consist of horrible hateful ranting, which is unfortunate given the ease with which horrible hateful rants can now reach an audience. But giving governments and institutions the power to suppress “wrong” speech presumes that “wrongness” can be definitively known, and that the powerful can be trusted not to skew the definition to cow their political enemies and perpetuate their own rule. Horrible hateful rants can be endured.

But no party is all that vocal about the free speech issue – besides the Libertarians, whose positions on almost everything else I find dubious. There just aren’t many voters who care.

My concerns about sprawl and auto dependency are generally shared by parties on the left – but those same parties are usually hostile to dense urban development, while being committed to ever-greater levels of immigration – making it impossible for them to devise policies that effectively contain exurban growth. So this issue, like free speech, tends not to drive my voting that much.

Democracy, as I define it, rarely comes up. I know the Democratic Party in the States thinks Republican “voter suppression” tactics are anti-small-“d”-democratic, but as I’ve argued before, there is no God-given system under which elections would be perfectly fair. The Democratic coalition takes in the young, the transient, the frequently-incarcerated – it makes sense for Democrats to oppose rules that create barriers to voting, such as having to show your ID, or not be a felon. The Republican coalition, meanwhile, is older, more suburban, more likely to be married and settled. Barriers are easier for them to overcome. The most Democrat-friendly rules would permit anyone to show up at any polling station and vote with no questions asked. Republican-friendly rules would demand that you bring along two pieces of photo ID, plus proof you’ve resided in the district for ten years, and also the poll supervisor recognizes you from his bowling league.

That reminds me of something I came across on Mark Steyn’s website today. (I love and revere Steyn, largely for his corny and erudite celebrations of old-fashioned American songcraft – but he is of course a highly partisan conservative, so skepticism must be calibrated accordingly.) In his election eve post he embeds a video of President Obama being interviewed by the website Mitú – the self-proclaimed “Voice of Young Latinos”. In response to a somewhat muddled question from Gina Rodriguez, the president – well, to quote the title of the video, he seemingly “encourages illegal aliens to vote.” As Steyn parses the exchange:

[T]he question is perfectly clear – the interviewer is brazenly advocating mass lawbreaking of the defining act of representative government – and the principal representative of that government is most certainly not clear in slapping such a provocation down.

Is the question really that clear? For a less adversarial take, Steyn sportingly links to the writer and legal expert Jonathan Turley, who says:

[T]he President clearly states that “when you vote, you are a citizen yourself.” The confusion is over the use [by Rodriguez] of “undocumented citizen” to refer to illegal immigrants.

This flap seems pretty characteristic of the current U.S. political scene. Each side attributes the worst intentions to the other, leaping to the least forgiving reading of any ambiguous or unpolished comment. Republicans, fearful of cheating Democrats bussing in illegal ringers to tip the election, push for stricter voting requirements. Democrats, assuming Republican fears are a put-on, accuse Republicans of racistly disenfranchising minorities. Speaking as an outsider, it all just makes me sort of tired.

***

I put “democracy” on my issues list because it actually influenced my decision in the last Canadian federal election. My ideal outcome for that contest was a minority government for either the Conservatives or NDP, with the Liberals humiliatingly crushed and Justin Trudeau chased out of politics forever. Not because I have anything particularly against Trudeau, who seems like a nice enough guy, in that grating progressive confident-he’s-on-the-right-side-of-history way. But the monarchical principle should be resisted in democracy whenever it arises. (I excuse actual constitutional monarchs as harmless tourist attractions.) The point of democracy isn’t that it provides good government, but that it guarantees regular, non-violent opportunities for self-correction. Dashing looks and famous names throw off the electorate’s judgement and delay necessary electoral corrections – so that the reaction, when it finally comes, is more extreme than it need have been. Which is why Peripheral Bushes and Lesser Kennedys and, yes, Distaff Clintons should be held to a stricter standard, not a laxer one, than those who rose to prominence under unstoried names.

Not that anyone really cares what I think. Happy Election Night, America. Try to stay chill.

M.

Do crosswalk timers cause more collisions, and if so, why?

Note: Here’s the fourth in a trove of unpublished blog posts I salvaged from an old laptop. The news story referenced is now a few years out of date, but it’s still interesting…at least to me.

crosswalk timer rear-end collision

In the Vancouver Sun a few weeks ago (April 2013) there was an article about how crosswalk timers – the walk signals at many intersections that count down the number of seconds till the light turns yellow – reduce collisions between vehicles and pedestrians, but increase collisions between vehicles.

Arvind Magesan, the University of Calgary researcher who discovered this phenomenon, theorizes that the extra accidents are caused by drivers speeding up to beat the red light:

“If a road is really busy and it’s slow-moving traffic, you can’t really use a countdown to decide to drive faster to get through a light. In places like that, it seems to have a positive effect. It reduces the rates of accidents,” Magesan said Tuesday.

“In places where a driver does have the opportunity to react to this thing – which they are not supposed to be reacting to in the first place – they use the information and accelerate,” Magesan said.

I never realized that drivers “are not supposed to be reacting to” these timers. When I took driver training, not so very many years ago, the instructor explicitly advised us to keep an eye on crosswalk signals to get a sense of when the light was about to change. The idea was that when we saw the blinking red hand, we should be prepared to slow down. But a more reckless driver will obviously take the red hand as a cue to make haste through the intersection.

It’s not only crosswalk signals that are interpreted in ways not intended by the designers. Recall that scene in the movie Starman, where Jeff Bridges’ stranded alien, having learned to drive by observing Karen Allen, interprets the meaning of the traffic signals as “red light, stop – green light, go – yellow light, go very fast.”

A crosslight timer is just a more explicit blinking red hand, which in turn is a kind of yellow light advance-warning. They all serve the same purpose; to tell us roughly how long until the light turns red. What we do with that information is up to us. Reckless drivers use it one way, cautious drivers another.

I was skeptical of Arvind Magesan’s crosswalk timer study, so I tracked it down online. Co-authored with Sacha Kapoor, the study is disguised under the unrevealing title Paging Inspector Sands: The Costs of Public Information. In supporting their findings, Magesan and Kapoor assert (citing earlier research) that “providing drivers with information about the time until a light change causes drivers to approach traffic lights more aggressively on average.” That on average is key. Some of us use the information the way my driving instructor wanted us to – to give us a little extra warning that we need to slow down. Others use the information to determine how much they need to speed up to avoid wasting time at a red light.

I would have thought the two effects would balance out – cautious drivers would avoid crashes by slowing down, reckless drivers would get into more crashes by speeding up, and the net effect would be a wash. But when you think about it, it makes sense that accidents would increase even if crosswalk timers didn’t, as the authors claim, make drivers more aggressive on average. Because you need both a reckless and a cautious driver to create the conditions for the kind of crash they describe.

Let me explain. After I read the news story, but before I read the study, I assumed that the higher accident rate was caused by vehicles speeding through yellow lights and colliding head-on with vehicles attempting to turn left. This was consistent with Magesan’s assertion that it was at less busy intersections where the increase in accidents occurred. At busy, slow-moving intersections, vehicles are unable to work up a head of steam, so the crosswalk timer makes no difference. But at less busy intersections, drivers who see the timer from fifty or a hundred yards out might stomp on the gas to try and beat the light. Since less busy intersections tend not to get designated left turn signals, I reasoned, there are more likely to be vehicles waiting there to turn left on yellow, hence, more opportunities for smashes.

My assumption was wrong. The authors broke down the accidents by type, and it seems that collisions involving a “turning movement” increased only negligibly when the crosswalk timers were installed. The greatest increase was in rear-end collisions. What’s more, speeding wasn’t the major cause of the accidents. Tailgating was.

Consider that, in any given pair of vehicles approaching an intersection, there are four possible combinations:

1. Cautious driver following cautious driver.
2. Cautious driver following reckless driver.
3. Reckless driver following reckless driver.
4. Reckless driver following cautious driver.

In scenarios 1 and 2, the crosswalk timer ought to help cautious drivers more accurately gauge when to start slowing down. This can be useful, especially in slippery winter conditions (the study was conducted in Toronto) where braking distance might be three or four times longer than usual. You’d think some number of rear-end collisions would be avoided here.

In scenario 3, where a reckless driver follows a reckless driver, they should both zoom safely through the intersection.

The typical crosswalk timer-induced accident involves scenario 4, where a reckless driver follows too closely behind a cautious driver. The reckless driver sees the timer and concludes that if he sticks closely to the vehicle ahead, he can sneak through the light just as it changes. He reasons that if he can make it through the intersection on time, the driver ahead, who obviously can see the timer just as well as he can, has even less reason to stop. What he doesn’t realize is that the cautious driver ahead isn’t interpreting the signal the same way. The cautious driver hits the brakes just as the reckless driver hits the gas.

In this case, the added information provided by the crosswalk timer is making things worse by facilitating both the recklessness of the reckless driver and the caution of the cautious driver. The accident would have been avoided if the reckless driver had slowed down or if the cautious driver had maintained his speed.

Whatever behavioural mechanism is at work, it appears that offering too much information can in fact make traffic signals more dangerous. Does it follow that less information makes signals less dangerous? According to Wikipedia, the very first modern traffic light included a warning that the light was about to change – a buzzer, back then, rather than a yellow light. How would drivers behave at an intersection where there was no warning at all – no buzzer, no yellow light, just red and green, stop and go? It might lead to more running of red lights. Or it might make everyone more cautious as they approached an intersection, for precisely that reason.

If it turns out having some warning is in fact safer than having none, what’s the sweet spot, safety-wise, between not enough warning and too much? And what’s the tradeoff between that optimally safe arrangement and the optimally efficient flow of traffic? After all, the safest traffic condition is probably gridlock, where no-one can build up enough speed to hurt anybody else.

Recently a few blogs have featured this video of Poynton, England, where they removed all traffic signals from the central intersection. In order to navigate the new uncontrolled double-roundabout safely, drivers are forced to actually pay attention to pedestrians and their fellow drivers. The result, apparently, is a much safer and smoother flow of traffic than you might expect.

Predictably, most of the discussion of this innovation has occurred on crunchy-leaning urban design blogs, and is uniformly uncritical. On some forums you can find a few skeptical comments from cyclists and drivers who claim that the new configuration is simply shifting traffic problems to routes that miss the town. (Not that this is necessarily a bad thing.)

Me, I’m agnostic. I’m glad planners are trying out new ideas, but I wonder if the current mania for walkability, shared roadways, and related New Urbanist tropes will in the long run suffer a backlash just as the previous mania for Brutalist skyscrapers, vast concrete plazas, and neighbourhood-gutting freeways did. My impression of that bizarre double-roundabout in the Poynton video is that it looks pleasant enough for pedestrians, but as a driver I’d gladly go a few miles out of my way to avoid it. But then, I’m a North American, and we’re famously flummoxed by roundabouts.

Incidentally, Magesan and Kapoor’s policy recommendation is that crosswalk timers be replaced with audible countdowns that only pedestrians, and not drivers, can hear. If I were a policymaker I’d be reluctant to act on this until the study has been replicated a few times by other researchers in other places. Since many cities seem to be installing these timers, there should be plenty of data available.

As a fairly cautious driver, I’d prefer to keep the visible timers – I find them useful for regulating my speed when conditions are slippery, as they so often are in Canada. I suppose I’ll feel differently if I’m ever rear-ended at one of these intersections.

M.